The Impact of the October 2013 Government Shutdown
and Debt Ceiling on U.S. Treasury Default Risk

Abstract

The study examines the impact of the partial U.S. government shutdown of October 2013 on the yields of Treasury bills. The authors find that there was a significant impact on the yields of four-week Treasury bills as compared with high-quality commercial paper. They do not find a similar impact on the yields of Treasury bills of three-month maturity. The analysis is based on the results of t-tests, regressions, and nonparametric tests, and the results are robust across the methodologies. The study has important implications for academics, market participants, and lawmakers.

TOPICS: Legal/regulatory/public policy, fixed income and structured finance, statistical methods