Loss Severity on Residential Mortgages: Evidence from Freddie Mac’s Newest Data

Abstract

In this article, we analyze new loan-level data recently released by Freddie Mac on more than 17 million single-family mortgages to reveal a range of new and useful insights into the ultimate financial losses associated with a loan after it experiences a credit event. We conclude that mortgage insurance significantly lowers loss severities. We show that actual loss severities are higher than the preset severity schedule for loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 60–80, relatively accurate for higher-LTV loans. We also find that small loans have higher severity than larger loans, that real-estate-owned (REO) sales have higher severity than short sales, and that there is no stable relationship between the state of origination and severity. Finally, we review the components of loss—liquidation value, direct expenses, and lost interest—and find that direct expenses and loss interest contribute significantly to the ultimate loss.