PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Chris Dialynas
TI  - When a Fact May Not Be a Fact—<em>and So What? An Analysis of Credit Default Statistics</em>
AID  - 10.3905/jfi.2018.28.3.038
DP  - 2018 Dec 31
TA  - The Journal of Fixed Income
PG  - 38--45
VI  - 28
IP  - 3
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/28/3/38.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/28/3/38.full
AB  - Statistics envelop conclusions with an aura of certainty. However, the output of decision making is only as good as the input and, for investors, this is a critical truism. This article examines credit analysis and the annual default and recovery statistics from rating agencies, presented by rating category on an annual basis as well as cumulatively over a prescribed period. The statistics are very important inputs to many facets of the investment process because they purportedly represent the default rate over a particular period and the probability-adjusted recovery of principal for a specific investment category. This study’s findings show, however, that currently reported default statistics are misleading due to the absence of bailout inputs. The persistence of central bank intrusions into financial markets and policymakers’ concern for “financial conditions” and the associated wealth effects have served to finance government budget deficits and private debt at very low interest rates, making credit default inputs less reliable.TOPICS: Information providers/credit ratings, fixed income and structured finance, quantitative methods