PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Campbell R. Harvey
TI  - The Term Structure and World Economic Growth: A Retrospective and 30 Years of Out-of-sample Evidence
AID  - 10.3905/jfi.2022.1.142
DP  - 2022 Sep 02
TA  - The Journal of Fixed Income
PG  - jfi.2022.1.142
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/early/2022/09/02/jfi.2022.1.142.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/early/2022/09/02/jfi.2022.1.142.full
AB  - The inaugural issue of The Journal of Fixed Income led with an article by a junior professor at Duke University (me) who linked the slope of the yield curve—the difference between long-term and short-term yields—to future economic growth. Thirty years later, I assess the out-of-sample performance of the yield curve indicator. Four recessions have come and gone since my article was submitted to The Journal of Fixed Income in 1990. Each time the yield curve has inverted prior to the recession. I also provide some additional background regarding the genesis of my idea.