Risk premiums in dynamic term structure models with unspanned macro risks

S Joslin, M Priebsch, KJ Singleton - The Journal of Finance, 2014 - Wiley Online Library
This paper quantifies how variation in economic activity and inflation in the United States
influences the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in Treasury markets. We …

Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices

S d'Amico, DH Kim, M Wei - Journal of Financial and Quantitative …, 2018 - cambridge.org
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are frequently thought of as risk-free real
bonds. Using no-arbitrage term structure models, we show that TIPS yields exceeded risk …

Inflation expectations, real rates, and risk premia: Evidence from inflation swaps

J Haubrich, G Pennacchi… - The Review of Financial …, 2012 - academic.oup.com
We develop a model of nominal and real bond yield curves that has four stochastic drivers
but seven factors: three factors primarily determine the cross-section of yields, whereas four …

Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium

G Bekaert, X Wang - Economic policy, 2010 - academic.oup.com
This article starts by discussing the concept of 'inflation hedging'and provides estimates of
'inflation betas' for standard bond and well-diversified equity indices for over 45 countries …

Decomposing real and nominal yield curves

M Abrahams, T Adrian, RK Crump, E Moench… - Journal of Monetary …, 2016 - Elsevier
Inflation-indexed and nominal yield curves capture investors׳ expectations of real short rates
and inflation as well as their required compensation for bearing liquidity, inflation, and real …

[BOOK][B] Understanding inflation-indexed bond markets

JY Campbell, RJ Shiller, LM Viceira - 2009 - direct.mit.edu
In recent years, government-issued inflation-indexed bonds have become available in a
number of countries and have provided a fundamentally new instrument for use in retirement …

Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage‐free model of nominal and real bond yields

JHE Christensen, JA Lopez… - Journal of Money …, 2010 - Wiley Online Library
Differences between yields on comparable‐maturity US Treasury nominal and real debt, the
so‐called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation …

A new normal for interest rates? Evidence from inflation-indexed debt

JHE Christensen, GD Rudebusch - Review of Economics and …, 2019 - direct.mit.edu
The downtrend in US interest rates over the past two decades may partly reflect a decline in
the longer-run equilibrium real rate of interest. We examine this issue using dynamic term …

Estimating inflation risk premia using inflation‐linked bonds: A review

A Kupfer - Contemporary Topics in Finance: A Collection of …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
This chapter presents and compares existing studies' research designs and data used and
shows their estimates for the inflation risk premium, thus building on the work of Bekaert and …

Deflation risk

M Fleckenstein, FA Longstaff… - The Review of Financial …, 2017 - academic.oup.com
We study the nature of deflation risk by extracting the objective distribution of inflation from
the market prices of inflation swaps and options. We find that the market expects inflation to …